Guzzinati S, Tursini F, Dal Maso L, Gigli A , Francisci S. 

47th Annual Meeting of the Group for Cancer Epidemiology and Registration in Latin Language Countries (GRELL). 

Mont Saint-Michel, Normandy, 31 May - 2 June 2023

 Abstract

INTRODUCTION:
In most developed countries, the number of cancer survivors is expected to increase over the coming
decades, because of raising incidence and survival and population ageing. These people are
heterogeneous in terms of health service requirements; therefore, it is worth to provide updated
measures of prevalence for groups of patients based on the level of care they require. Aim of this
paper is to illustrate a new method to estimate short-time projections of phase-of-care prevalence.
METHODS
The proposed method combines linear regression models to project limited duration prevalence
derived from Cancer Registry data and a session of the software COMPREV to estimate projected
complete prevalence into three distinct clinically relevant phases of care: the initial phase following
diagnosis, the last year of life and the continuing phase in between. The method is illustrated using
data from Veneto Cancer Registry, for breast, colorectal, and lung cancers.
RESULTS
Prevalence is expected to increase in the period 2020-2026: in women for lung cancer (2.6% average
annual variation), breast (2.3%) and colorectal cancer (1%); in men for colorectal (0.5%). The only
exception is the decreasing in lung cancer among men (-1.9%). The dynamic of prevalence slightly
affects the distribution of cancer survivors into the three phases of care: most patients are in the
continuing phase of care, followed by the initial and final phases of care, except for lung cancer, where
the final phase percentage is higher than the initial one.
DISCUSSION
The paper proposes an easy method to provide evidence of future cancer health care needs. Results
from the validation confirms the applicability of our methodological approach to most frequent cancer
types, provided at least 15 years of cancer registration. Evidence from this method is addressed to
policy makers for planning future cancer care, thus improving cancer survivorship experience for
patients and caregivers.